The quote suggests that long-term predictions, particularly those related to extreme weather events, are often based on historical data and trends. This approach assumes that what has happened before will likely repeat itself in some form in the future. If we lose this assumption, it becomes challenging to use past records as a reliable basis for preparing for future weather extremes.
Delving deeper into the quote's implications, Hannah Fry points out a critical flaw in predictive modeling when dealing with rapidly changing environmental conditions. The reliance on historical patterns assumes that current and future conditions will mirror the past closely enough to make accurate predictions. However, climate change is introducing unprecedented variability, making it increasingly difficult to rely solely on past data. This unpredictability challenges our ability to prepare effectively for extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts, and floods, which can have devastating impacts if we are unprepared.
Hannah Fry is a renowned mathematician and broadcaster known for her work in popularizing mathematics through books, television shows, and public lectures. She frequently discusses the intersection of mathematical principles with real-world applications, including topics like data science, urban planning, and technology. Her insights often highlight how our understanding of past trends can both assist and limit our ability to forecast future events accurately.
